US-Iran Ceasefire on the Brink: Peace Talks Uncertain After Wave of Crossfire

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran came under severe strain this week as both nations exchanged military strikes, raising urgent questions about whether peace negotiations can survive. Despite the escalation, a US official has told Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to continuing technical talks with Tehran.

The wave of attacks began on Tuesday night and continued through Thursday, marking the most significant breakdown of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 17. That agreement had initiated a 60-day window for negotiating a comprehensive peace deal.

Timeline of This Week's Escalation

The US launched strikes against 85 targets inside Iran on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These attacks came in response to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly for deviating from an Iran-approved shipping route through the waterway.

Iran retaliated on Wednesday by hitting US military assets and infrastructure located in Gulf states. The US then struck 90 additional Iranian targets on Wednesday night and Thursday, targeting southern coastal and eastern provinces. Iran reported that civilian infrastructure was among the sites hit, further eroding the three-week-old ceasefire.

Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkiye, on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump told reporters he believed the MoU was "over." He described Iranian leaders as "scum" and called the peace talks a "waste of time," though he said he would permit negotiators to continue their work for the time being.

Trump appeared to soften his stance on Thursday, telling journalists aboard Air Force One that a return to full-scale war was not the objective. He acknowledged that military action remained an option but suggested that Tehran "wants to make a deal."

Early Friday, Iranian media reported multiple explosions across southern Iran, including in Bushehr — home to one of the country's nuclear facilities — as well as Konarak, Choghadak, and Bandar Abbas. The United States denied any involvement in those blasts. By Friday morning, the fighting appeared to have subsided as mediating nations worked to restore diplomatic channels.

What the MoU Established

The June 17 agreement between Washington and Tehran outlined several key commitments. Both parties agreed to an immediate cessation of hostilities in Iran and a permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The MoU also called for respecting Lebanon's territorial integrity.

Under the deal, the US committed to lifting its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and removing sanctions on Iranian oil. In return, Iran pledged to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait for 60 days and reaffirmed its commitment not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.

Negotiations were initially scheduled to take place in Switzerland to address the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's frozen assets, long-term sanctions relief, and Tehran's nuclear programme. However, those talks were delayed by Israel's continued bombardment of southern Lebanon, where it has occupied roughly one-fifth of the country.

Some direct discussions did occur in Switzerland before the two sides shifted to indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, earlier this month. Those talks were paused for the weeklong funeral processions of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28. Trump had previously pledged that US attacks would not resume during the funeral proceedings.

Competing Accusations of Violations

Each side has accused the other of breaching the agreement. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the US strikes as a "grave war crime," alleging violations of Articles 1 and 5 of the MoU. Tehran has filed formal complaints with the United Nations Security Council and the UN Secretary-General. Parliament Speaker Muhammad Ghalibaf, a key negotiator, accused Washington of "bullying" in a Thursday post on X, warning that strikes would be met with retaliation.

Washington, meanwhile, contends that Tehran violated the ceasefire by firing on ships transiting the strait. A tanker caught fire off the coast of Oman on Monday night after being struck by an "unknown projectile," according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. Axios, citing two unnamed US officials, reported that the IRGC fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels in the strait that same night.

Disputes have also emerged over Iran's intention to charge fees for ships using the strait. The MoU guarantees free passage for 60 days, but Iran has signaled plans to impose environmental or service charges, possibly in coordination with Oman. Mohsen Milani, a politics professor at the University of South Florida, told Al Jazeera that this reflects Iran's effort to translate its sovereignty over half the strait into lasting influence.

Observers note that the MoU's language is vague on several critical points. The agreement references a ceasefire in Lebanon but does not specifically mention Israel, which is not a signatory. Israel has killed at least 3,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than one million since early March, according to the source. Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group that began firing rockets into northern Israel after the February 28 strikes on Tehran.

Israel agreed to a new framework in late June following four days of talks in Washington, DC. However, experts describe that deal as fragile, as it ties the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the disarmament of Hezbollah — a condition the armed group has repeatedly rejected. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem dismissed the framework as "null and void," demanding that Israel first end its occupation.

Will Talks Resume?

Negotiations had been expected to restart around July 11, following the conclusion of Khamenei's state funeral. Iranian state media reported that the late supreme leader was buried in his birthplace of Mashhad at the Shrine of Imam Reza, marking the end of the funeral proceedings. However, the US decision to strike Iran during the funeral period — for the third time while talks were ongoing — has cast doubt on whether Tehran will return to the negotiating table.

Iran has stated it will not negotiate while under attack and has previously cited the pattern of US military action during diplomatic efforts as a reason not to trust Washington's leadership. A US official, however, has affirmed that the American negotiating team remains committed to continuing the dialogue.

Neither side has officially withdrawn from the MoU or declared it terminated. Yet with trust severely diminished and the agreement's ambiguous wording fueling disputes over shipping routes, Lebanon, and sanctions relief, the path forward remains deeply uncertain.

As mediating nations push to bring both sides back to diplomacy, the world watches to see whether this ceasefire can hold — or if the MoU will collapse entirely. What do you think the chances are for lasting peace between the US and Iran? Share this article and join the conversation.

Source: Al Jazeera English