Syria's New Government Faces Mounting Security Threats as Blasts Rock Damascus During Macron Visit

Twin explosions shook Damascus on Tuesday during a landmark visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, the first European Union leader to travel to Syria since President Ahmed al-Sharaa's forces ousted Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The blasts, which injured 18 people according to the state news agency SANA, came just days after a separate bombing at a Damascus cafe claimed at least nine lives.

Explosions Strike as Macron Visits Damascus

The first blast occurred when a device that security forces were attempting to defuse near the French president's hotel detonated. A second explosion followed minutes later, SANA reported. The timing of the attacks, during a high-profile diplomatic visit, has amplified concerns about the stability of al-Sharaa's government and its ability to secure the capital.

Macron's visit was intended to signal international engagement with Syria's new leadership. Instead, the explosions served as a stark reminder of the security vacuum that persists in a country emerging from years of devastating civil war, where outside actors including Russia, Iran, and various allied Shia militias once operated freely.

ISIL Cells Suspected Behind Recent Blasts

While no group has claimed responsibility for the recent spate of bombings, speculation has largely centered on remnants of the ISIL (ISIS) group. The organization, whose former capital Raqqa in northeastern Syria became notorious for its brutality, remains a tangible presence on the ground.

The United Nations estimates that ISIL still commands between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters across Syria and neighboring Iraq. Aron Lund, a fellow at the New York-based Century International think tank, told Al Jazeera that ISIL is still around and still active, and that conjecture about the bombings has focused on the group.

Lund emphasized that the number of fighters matters less than the outsized impact even a small cell can achieve. He noted that just a couple of individuals are enough to make and plant a bomb to create an outsized impact, one that can easily derail government efforts to project normalcy, attract tourism, and secure much-needed foreign investment. From a political and psychological perspective, these things could not come at a worse time, Lund added.

Armed Factions and Regional Rivalries Complicate Governance

Although al-Sharaa has defied expectations by reasserting control over nearly all of Syria, the strength of that control varies significantly across regions. Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst with the Crisis Group, noted that government authority ranges from its strongest in western and central areas to its weakest along the southern border and in Druze-majority regions, following a January integration deal that brought the northeast under formal Damascus control.

Hawach identified three distinct challenges to the new order: ISIL cells seeking to undermine government-held areas from within, former regime remnants operating as scattered sabotage networks, and armed actors in Suwayda and the northeast who retain the capacity to contest how Damascus governs and integrates them.

Tensions in Druze-majority areas escalated dramatically in July 2025, when fighting between Druze and local Bedouins erupted into open conflict. Israel intervened on what it claimed was the Druze's behalf, shelling Suwayda after Syrian government forces entered the city. Israel has previously shown willingness to support minority groups, including Syria's Druze, against the central government.

Loyalists of the former regime have also stepped up activity. Rami Makhlouf, al-Assad's billionaire cousin, who was reported in January to have been channeling funds from exile in Moscow to Alawite forces in Syria, released a video this week appearing to threaten the Damascus government. Demanding the release of all Alawite prisoners, Makhlouf warned that when he says he will do something, he does it.

Additionally, Shia militias that originally allied with Iran to back the previous government remain active, while mistrust and rivalries with neighboring Iran and Iraq, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, and Israel continue to threaten al-Sharaa's state-building project.

Internal Divisions May Pose the Greatest Threat

Analysts caution that some of the most significant challenges to al-Sharaa's rule may come from within his own ranks. During his rapid advance in December 2024, al-Sharaa relied heavily on forces from the conservative Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and other religiously inspired factions. Now, the reality of governing a country devastated by 14 years of war, rampant corruption, and sweeping sanctions has tested those alliances.

Sanctions relief has begun to materialize. In June 2025, US President Donald Trump waived sanctions on what the US Department of the Treasury described as entities critical to Syria's development, the operation of its government, and the rebuilding of the country's social fabric. While this could prove pivotal for attracting foreign investment, it also risks alienating the conservative young men who formed the backbone of al-Sharaa's rise to power and who remain largely unemployed.

Caroline Rose of the New Lines Institute warned that the greatest threat to the new government comes from within, driven not by a single group or individual but by a pattern of division. She suggested that elements within al-Sharaa's core constituency and former HTS circle could feasibly mount a campaign against the administration and al-Sharaa individually if they continue to experience grievances over a more moderate governmental agenda that emphasises engagement with the West.

As Syria's new leadership navigates these overlapping security, political, and economic challenges, the path to stability remains fraught with uncertainty. What are your thoughts on Syria's prospects under al-Sharaa's government? Share this article and join the conversation.

Source: Al Jazeera English