Europe's Long March Toward Military Independence from the United States

Europe's militaries remain deeply dependent on American weaponry, a reality that was once again on display at July's NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The gathering, which included a high-level Defense Industry Forum, saw US companies secure several lucrative defense contracts even as European governments signaled their intention to eventually chart a more independent course.

Missiles and Air Defense: The Patriot Problem

Patriot air and missile defense systems perhaps best illustrate the reliance of European NATO members on the United States. These systems have been deployed across NATO countries for decades and have more recently been used to protect strategically important targets in Ukraine.

European governments have begun developing alternative systems to reduce this dependence. France and Italy have collaborated on the SAMP/T NG system, designed to intercept threats at high altitudes. The new generation will be capable of detecting ballistic missiles using additional sensors, with the first units scheduled for delivery starting in 2027.

The IRIS-T, developed by the German company Diehl, represents another medium-range defense option. It is already operational in Ukraine, where it functions at a maximum range of 40 kilometers (approximately 25 miles) and an altitude of 20 kilometers. An upgraded version, the IRIS-T SLX, is expected to become available from 2029, extending the range to 80 kilometers and the altitude to 30 kilometers.

At the Ankara summit, Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly produce ATACMS missiles in Germany. This move aims to increase European stockpiles without antagonizing the United States, while representing a step toward greater long-term independence.

Deep Strike Capabilities and the Tomahawk Gap

When European militaries need to carry out deep precision strikes behind enemy lines, they currently depend on US systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles. Germany has embraced this short-term solution, brokering a memorandum of understanding with Washington to purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles along with ground-based Typhoon launch systems.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the deal would "close an important strategic gap in our defenses." However, the agreement also underscored a persistent reality: Europe will continue relying on the United States as long as European alternatives remain in development.

The European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) offers a potential path forward. The international project involves six governments, including France, Germany, and Britain, and aims to develop a conventional ground-launched missile system. Beyond the Euro Multi Missile Launcher, the initiative encompasses highly complex cruise missiles as well as more affordable long-range drones with ranges between 500 and 2,000 kilometers. Despite these efforts, genuine battlefield independence is not anticipated until the 2030s.

Drones, Satellites, and the Kill Chain

The "kill chain" — a military concept encompassing target identification, force dispatch, attack initiation, and target destruction — represents another area where the EU depends on the US. Without a self-sufficient network of sensors, satellite reconnaissance, and command structures, European missiles cannot independently identify targets.

The Drone and Counter Drone European Resolve (DECODER) project aims to equip EU militaries with drone and counterdrone systems, reducing reliance on American technology. Currently, much of the development in this field occurs at the national level. German defense companies and drone-producing startups have benefited from the Ukraine war and new contracts with the Bundeswehr. DECODER could help align these national efforts across Europe. All 26 EU member states are involved, along with Norway and Ukraine, whose battlefield experience is considered invaluable.

The European Commission estimates that DECODER — currently a framework rather than a fully developed program — will require investment between €3.5 billion and €5 billion ($4–5.7 billion) by 2033.

In the satellite domain, the EU is developing IRIS² as its answer to Starlink, the US telecommunications service that has proven essential on Ukrainian battlefields. IRIS² will consist of 290 satellites serving defense purposes and enabling secure communication between government agencies. The project, costing more than 10 billion, is scheduled to be operational by 2030.

NATO is also working to replace its aging fleet of Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, some of which are operated from a NATO air base in Geilenkirchen in western Germany. At the Ankara summit, NATO announced formal negotiations with the Swedish company Saab to replace the Boeing-derived systems with GlobalEye early-warning aircraft, potentially ready by 2030.

Setbacks and the Road Ahead

Many European countries have purchased fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, currently the most advanced Western combat aircraft. While state-of-the-art, these purchases further underscore European dependence on the US.

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), envisioned as a sixth-generation fighter jet featuring swarming drones and a "combat cloud," was intended to be the EU's response. However, the project collapsed amid disputes over management, division of labor, key technologies, and national interests — particularly between France and Germany. The failure represents a significant setback for European autonomy at a time when the bloc is actively trying to reduce its dependence on the United States.

As Europe navigates these challenges, the path to genuine defense independence appears long and complex. With multiple projects in various stages of development and timelines stretching into the next decade, the continent faces critical decisions about its security future. Will these initiatives finally give Europe the strategic autonomy it seeks, or will transatlantic dependency endure? Share this article and join the conversation about Europe's defense future.

Source: DW – World