Sunday's World Cup final brings together two continental champions as holders Argentina, the South American titleholders, face Spain, the European champions. The matchup offers a fascinating contrast in styles, with the numbers revealing just how different these two sides have been on their road to the final.
Because two of Argentina's matches went to extra time, they have played a full hour more football than Spain at this tournament. To account for that discrepancy, the statistics below include per-90-minute figures alongside totals.
Argentina's Lethal Finishing Against Spain's Measured Attack
Argentina lead the tournament with 19 goals scored, a tally driven by remarkably clinical finishing. They have found the net at least twice in each of their past 13 World Cup matches, a streak that began after their 2-1 opening defeat to Saudi Arabia four years ago.
Spain, despite taking more shots than Argentina, have scored six goals fewer. Their 13 goals align almost perfectly with their expected goals (xG) rating of 13.3, suggesting they have converted chances at an average rate rather than outperforming their underlying numbers.
The contrast is sharpest from outside the penalty area. Argentina have scored five times from distance, while Spain are yet to register a single long-range goal. Inside the box, the difference is minimal — Argentina have scored just one more than their opponents from that zone.
Spain's Defence in a League of Its Own
While Spain trail Argentina by six goals in attack, they hold the same advantage defensively. Luis de la Fuente's side have conceded just once all tournament — during their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium.
Argentina's defensive record looks worse on paper, with seven goals conceded, but the underlying data paints a kinder picture. Only three teams have given up shots less frequently, and only Spain have a lower xG against per 90 minutes. Nevertheless, Spain's defensive numbers stand alone.
Remarkably, despite playing more matches than 44 other teams in the tournament, Spain still possess the lowest overall defensive xG at this World Cup, at 2.1. Uruguay sit second on that list with 2.4, and they were eliminated in the group stage.
A shot map of Spain's matches tells the story clearly: the dots representing chances faced are uniformly small, meaning opponents have been restricted to low-quality opportunities. France's formidable front four, in strong form before their semi-final, found little joy against a backline that has barely allowed attackers room to operate.
Work Rate, Possession and Fitness
Spain's defensive solidity stems partly from sheer effort. While Argentina have covered 13.5 metres more in total — a product of those two extra-time periods — Spain have run and sprinted more per 90 minutes. Only Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay, with 7.7 final-third possession wins per 90, have regained the ball in attacking areas more frequently.
Argentina, by contrast, have been outrun by every opponent they have faced, accumulating a total deficit of 17 kilometres across the tournament. Yet they have won every match. Their less physically intense approach means that despite playing 60 minutes more than Spain, fitness should not be a significant disadvantage in the final — particularly given that they rested numerous players in their final group-stage victory over Jordan.
Both teams have controlled possession in most of their fixtures, though neither is reliant on the ball to win. Spain managed just 51% possession in their semi-final triumph against France, while Argentina had only 48% in their 3-0 group-stage win over Algeria.
Aerial Battles and the Dribbling Kings
Spain have delivered crosses far more frequently across the tournament as a whole, but Argentina's use of wide deliveries has increased sharply as the competition has progressed. After attempting just 13 open-play crosses in their first four matches, the holders have put in 51 across their last three, with Lautaro Martinez most recently heading the winner from one against England.
Spain boast the best aerial duel success rate at the World Cup, giving them an edge in the air. However, the two finalists' overall duel success rates are nearly identical, which means Argentina have been marginally more effective in ground duels.
Neither side has been prolific at dribbling. Twenty-five teams have attempted more dribbles per 90 minutes than Spain, and Argentina have tried even fewer. However, only Croatia, with a 63% success rate, have been more efficient when attempting to beat opponents.
The dribbling statistics are heavily skewed by two individuals. Between them, the two finalists have attempted 209 dribbles, and their star forwards — Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi — account for 90 of those, a remarkable 43%. Spain's teenage winger has attempted more dribbles than any other player at the tournament. Only Yamal and Brazil's Vinicius Jr, with 42, have run at opponents with the ball more often than Argentina's talisman.
As Sunday's final approaches, the numbers suggest a compelling tactical battle: Argentina's firepower and long-range threat against a Spanish defence that has been virtually impenetrable. Will clinical finishing or defensive mastery prevail? Share this article and let us know your prediction for the World Cup final.
Source: BBC Sport
