2026 Box Office Mid-Year Report: The Hits, Flops, and Surprises Reviving Hollywood

The box office is showing signs of a genuine recovery. After years of pandemic-related struggles, moviegoing has rebounded thanks to surprise hits like "Obsession" and "Backrooms" alongside successful sequels such as "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," "Toy Story 5," and "The Devil Wears Prada 2." While there have been notable failures—including "Moana" and "Masters of the Universe"—domestic ticket sales are up 10% from 2025, according to Rentrak. Hollywood is also experiencing its hottest summer since COVID, with revenues for the four-month season expected to surpass $4 billion for the first time since the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon of 2023.

Standout Performers

Several films delivered impressive results during the first half of the year. "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" earned $1 billion globally on a budget of $110 million, giving Illumination and Nintendo another major hit. Although the sequel didn't match its predecessor's returns and critics were less enthusiastic, the relatively modest budget for an animated film demonstrated continued audience appetite for the Mushroom Kingdom. With more than 200 Mario-related games in circulation, the franchise has ample material for future installments.

"Project Hail Mary," adapted from Andy Weir's bestseller, grossed $683.3 million worldwide on a $200 million budget. Released in March by Amazon MGM Studios, the science fiction adventure starred Ryan Gosling as a lonely scientist who bonds with an alien life-form. Strong reviews and word of mouth helped validate Amazon's increased investment in theatrical releases.

The Michael Jackson biopic "Michael" also reached $1 billion globally, with a budget of $155 million. Despite costly reshoots, behind-the-scenes drama, and criticism that the film offers a sanitized portrait by ending before Jackson faced child molestation accusations, audiences embraced the crowd-pleaser. It surpassed "Bohemian Rhapsody" ($911 million) as the highest-grossing musical biopic and outpaced "Oppenheimer" ($975 million) as the largest film about a real-life figure. Lionsgate is expected to greenlight at least one additional film about the singer.

Perhaps the most remarkable success story was "Obsession," a horror film directed by 26-year-old YouTube creator Curry Barker. Made for just $750,000, it grossed $426 million globally. After opening with $17 million in North America, ticket sales rose for four consecutive weekends—a rare trajectory. The film wasn't cannibalized by "Backrooms," another low-budget horror movie by YouTuber Kane Parsons, proving that younger audiences still go to theaters.

Costly Misfires

Not every release found an audience. "Supergirl" earned just $115 million globally against a $170 million budget, undone by poor reviews and limited familiarity with the character. While some criticism came from online trolls, the broader issue was that moviegoers have become more selective about which comic book adaptations they will support.

"Melania," a documentary about Melania Trump's inaugural prep, cost Amazon MGM Studios $40 million to produce and an additional $35 million to promote, but grossed only $16.7 million. "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" fared better at $340 million but fell short of expectations given its $165 million budget. Based on a Disney+ series and the franchise's first theatrical release in seven years, it is on track to become the lowest-earning Star Wars film ever—a distinction previously held by 2018's "Solo" at $392 million.

"The Bride!" was perhaps the most expensive flop. Director Maggie Gyllenhaal's adaptation, starring Christian Bale and Jessie Buckley, cost $90 million but grossed only $23.9 million. Its release near Guillermo del Toro's Oscar-winning "Frankenstein" starring Jacob Elordi compounded the problem, and Warner Bros. was forced to take a significant write-down.

Mixed Results

Some films landed in uncertain territory. Pixar's "Hoppers," an original story about a student who transfers her mind into a robotic beaver, grossed $372 million on a $150 million budget. Despite strong reviews and a $45 million debut, it didn't sustain momentum the way 2023's "Elemental" did after its slower $29 million start and eventual climb to nearly $500 million. Still, "Hoppers" represented a step forward for original animated content at a studio that has struggled with non-franchise films since 2017's "Coco."

"The Breadwinner," a family comedy starring Nate Bargatze, earned $20 million against a $25 million budget. "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" grossed $58.5 million on a $63 million budget, released just seven months after its predecessor with marketing that wasn't distinctive enough. Steven Spielberg's "Disclosure Day," an alien conspiracy thriller, earned $228 million globally on a $110 million budget—solid but below expectations for a filmmaker who helped define the blockbuster genre, especially as younger audiences gravitated toward YouTube-trained creators like Parsons and Barker.

With major releases still to come—including "The Odyssey," "Dune: Part Three," and "Avengers: Doomsday"—the 2026 box office could climb even higher. What's your take on this year's biggest hits and misses? Share this article and let us know which films surprised you most.

Source: Variety